Recently, it was reported that the US has assembled multiple B - 2 stealth bombers at the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean. The aim is to warn Iran and the Houthi militia in Yemen that if they continue to attack Israel and shipping targets in the Red Sea, the US military's air - strike operations will be fully escalated.
A spokesperson for the US Strategic Command claimed that this deployment is an important part of the Pentagon's operation to "deter, detect, and if necessary, defeat strategic attacks against the US and its allies".
It was reported that the US president ordered large - scale air - strike operations against the Houthi militia. He also warned Iran, which supports the Houthi militia, that if this group, which the US has listed as a terrorist organization, continues to launch attacks, Iran will bear the consequences. The president also warned Iran that if it persists in advancing its nuclear - weapon research and development, it will face military strikes.
An analyst pointed out that currently, the US is using maximum - pressure tactics against Iran and the Houthi militia in Yemen, aiming to maximize military deterrence. However, the possibility of direct military confrontation between the US and Iran is relatively low.
From a strategic perspective, the US has been implementing a strategy of strategic contraction in the Middle East in recent years. It is reluctant to invest too many resources in the region and does not want to be dragged into the quagmire of regional wars.
In the Middle East, Iran is the most powerful sovereign country with a hostile stance towards the US and Israel. If the US engages in direct military conflict with Iran, it cannot predict the outcome of the war. It can, however, foresee that this conflict will definitely go beyond the bilateral scope of the US - Iran or Iran - Israel relationship and will have a systematic impact on the entire regional security architecture. This would be catastrophic for both the parties involved and the regional countries.
Therefore, whether out of consideration for its own interests or its responsibility for the security of its allies, the US will be very cautious about using force against Iran.
However, in order to achieve the maximum effect of military pressure, the US will continue to heighten the tension of the regional military stand - off. The US believes that only by making Iran believe that it is indeed possible to use force will Iran make concessions in the negotiations.
The US president said at the White House that he recently wrote a letter to Iran, preferring to resolve the issue through negotiations. But if Iran fails to reach a new agreement on the nuclear issue, it will face "very, very bad consequences".
According to US media, in the letter written to Iran's supreme leader in early March, the president proposed to negotiate a new Iran nuclear deal and clearly stated that Iran must reach an agreement within two months.
The supreme leader responded on the 21st, saying that the US should know that threats will not work when dealing with Iran.
Iran's foreign minister said on the 27th that Iran has "appropriately" replied to the president's letter through Oman. The reply includes Iran's interpretation of the current situation and a response to the president's views.
The foreign minister emphasized that Iran's policy is not to conduct direct negotiations with the US under maximum pressure and military threats, but the existing indirect negotiations with the US can continue.
The analyst believes that under the US's maximum - pressure tactics, future contacts regarding the Iran nuclear issue will not go smoothly.
The US is mainly responsible for the current situation of the Iran nuclear issue. It was because the president unilaterally tore up the Iran nuclear deal during his first term that the current deadlock in the positions of all parties and the renewed heating - up of the Iran nuclear issue have occurred.
The key now is that the US government should return to its previous commitments. However, it is obvious that the president's current thinking is not like this. The US's proposal to reach a new Iran nuclear deal means that it requires Iran to make more concessions.
In Iran's view, it was the US that violated the agreement, so the chances of reaching an agreement between the two sides are slim. Iran has clearly stated that it will not conduct negotiations with the US under the threat of maximum pressure.
Currently, both sides are adopting a "brink - of - war policy". Future contacts in the Iran nuclear negotiations will not only be difficult. On the contrary, once there is a misjudgment or any black - swan event occurs in the process, it may cause very serious regional security consequences.
